Forecasting Tourism Levy Revenue Using the SARIMAX Method as a Basis for Regional Own-Source Revenue (PAD) Planning: A Case Study of Garut Regency
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15575/jpkp.v5i1.58255Keywords:
Evidence-based policy, Public financial management, Regional own-source revenue, SARIMAX, Tourism retributionAbstract
Tourism retribution is a component of Regional Own-Source Revenue (PAD) that can support local fiscal independence, yet its realization in Garut Regency fluctuates considerably because of seasonal tourism patterns, the COVID-19 period, and the moving Eid al-Fitr holiday. This study aims to analyze the pattern of monthly tourism retribution, identify an appropriate SARIMAX forecasting model, and interpret the 2026 projection as an evidence-based input for public financial planning. The study applies a quantitative time-series approach using monthly tourism retribution realization data for 2021–2025. The model includes a mobility restriction dummy and an Eid al-Fitr dummy as exogenous variables. The results show that SARIMAX (2,1,1)(1,1,0)₁₂ was identified as the preferred specification based on AIC and residual diagnostics and remained competitive in rolling-origin out-of-sample validation, achieving the lowest average MAE of approximately IDR 71.90 million and the lowest average MAPE of 107.45% among the candidate models. The model produced an AIC of 1337.429 and a Ljung–Box p-value of 0.119851, indicating that the residuals satisfy the white-noise criterion. The Eid al-Fitr dummy is statistically significant and is associated with an increase in tourism retribution of approximately IDR 132.80 million, while the Mobility Restriction Dummy could not be reliably estimated. The 2026 point forecast reaches approximately IDR 1.426 billion, with April projected as the highest month at IDR 480.49 million and December as a secondary peak at IDR 199.48 million. These findings imply that local governments should set PAD targets using a realistic range, align cash-flow planning with seasonal revenue patterns, diversify tourism activities in low-revenue months, and strengthen data management for future forecasting.
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