Akurasi Peramalan Long Horizon dengan Singular Spectrum Analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15575/kubik.v3i2.4111Keywords:
akurasi, Singular Spectrum Analysis, R-Forecasting, V-Forecasting.Abstract
Perubahan iklim akhir-akhir ini tidak dapat dihindari. Salah satu penyebab perubahan iklim adalah perubahan suhu udara. Untuk itu, perlu dilakukan peramalan suhu agar penyimpangannya dapat diantisipasi. Dalam penelitian ini akan dibandingkan akurasi hasil peramalan dengan menggunakan model Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) dengan R-forecasting dan V-Forecasting. Peramalan dengan metode SSA R-forecasting dan V-Forecasting pada suhu Jakarta menggunakan window length L= 204 dan r=3 menghasilkan ramalan yang tidak jauh berbeda (aproksimasi kekontinuannya hampir sama). Berdasarkan hasil analisis, didapat MAPE untuk hasil permalan dengan SSA R-forecasting sebesar 5,0029 yang lebih besar dari MAPE SSA V-Forecasting sebesar 4,0067. Ini munjukkan bahwa peramalan suhu untuk long horizon lebih akurat dengan menggunakan V-Forecasting dibandingkan dengan R-Forecasting.
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