Application of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model in Rainfall Forecasting in Kabupaten Bandung Barat
Abstract
The expansion of the Kabupaten Bandung, namely Kabupaten Bandung Barat (KBB) is located in hilly and lowland areas. Rainfall in Kabupaten Bandung Barat has an impact on the productivity and performance of key sectors, such as agriculture, plantations and tourism. Low rainfall can lead prolonged dry seasons and result in drought. Conversely, extreme rainfall can also have negative impacts, such as causing soil erosion and potentially affecting the appeal and smooth operation of tourist destinations. Therefore, rainfall forecasting is needed in making appropriate policies, especially regarding the impacts of rainfall changes in KBB. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method is applied in this study to forecast rainfall in KBB. The aims of this research are to estimate the parameters of the SARIMA model using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method and to apply the SARIMA method in forecasting rainfall in KBB, particularly during the December-January-February (DJF) period. The results of the analysis show that the SARIMA model can be applied to forecast rainfall in KBB. The best SARIMA model obtained ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,0,1)3 with a MAPE value 17,80%, which indicates an accurate forecasting criterion.
Keywords: SARIMA, MLE, Rainfall.
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Copyright (c) 2025 valda azka nadhira, Budi Nurani Ruchjana, Kankan Parmikanti
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