Peramalan Menggunakan Metode MS-AR, MS-Regression dan MS-VAR pada Model Perubahan Struktur
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15575/kubik.v9i1.31371Keywords:
MS Autoregressive, MS Regression, MS Vector Autoregressive, Regime, ForecastingAbstract
Aktivitas ekspor dan impor memiliki peranan penting pada perdagangan internasional yang dapat meningkatkan pembangunan ekonomi di dalam negeri. Ekspor di Indonesia terdiri dari dua sektor yaitu migas dan non migas. Adanya perubahan regime dalam data migas menyebabkan volume ekspor cenderung fluktuatif dan memiliki perubahan struktur. Model perubahan struktur dapat diselesaikan dengan menggunakan metode Markov Switching (MS) yang terdiri dari MS Autoregressive, MS Regression dan MS Vector Autoregressive. Pada penelitian ini menggunakan data bulanan volume ekspor migas Indonesia selama 5 tahun (2018 sd 2022). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terjadi perubahan struktur pada waktu ke-12 (Desember 2018) dengan 2 regime. Setelah dilakukan pemodelan dan uji diagnostik, didapatkan model terbaik untuk volume ekspor migas Indonesia adalah MS(2) menggunakan metode MS Regression dengan nilai MAPE 12.49% dan nilai peluang perpindahan regime 94%, yang menyatakan bahwa ekspor migas yang dilakukan oleh negara Indonesia memberikan dampak yang cukup baik untuk perekonomian Indonesia, terutama dalam hal perdagangan internasional.
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